Al-Qaeda increases global terrorist threat in Afghanistan

The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) released its annual report on 1 June, warning Al-Qaeda (AQ), Tehrik-i-Pakistan (TTP), and Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) continue to thrive in Taliban-controlled Afghanistan. The report pays specific attention to AQ leaders serving in prominent security positions in the Taliban government, including in the defence ministry and the general directorate of intelligence (GDI).
AQ operatives have also been absorbed into political and governmental structures at the provincial and local municipal levels, mainly concentrated in Farah, Badgis, Helmand, Zabul, Kandahar, Ghazni, Kabul, Parwan, Kunar, Nanghar, Herat and Nuristan provinces.
In addition to AQ’s dispersed infusion into the government, the group is also running training camps, including installations focused on suicide bombing operations. The report also stated that up to 25 “Arab” AQ fighters arrived in Kunar and Nuristan specifically for training in suicide missions. There are also around 200 AQIS fighters, mainly supporting TTP operations as well as gaining valuable experience that poses a threat to India.

These are indeed worrying developments, even despite reports of deepening fractures within the Taliban. Nearly three years since the Taliban took over, AQ has taken advantage of NATO’s withdrawal to take an operational pause and reconstitute itself. AQ has created a permissive environment for itself by embedding its people in key ministries, namely the interior, and defence, reducing any hurdles to operate.
There are ongoing reports of Taliban fractionalisation, driven by policy issues rather than ideological ones. Ultimately, these differences are unlikely to dent AQ’s structure, operations, and ambitions for the foreseeable future. Afghanistan is enabling AQ and its affiliates to increase its size and capacity, raising its strategic threat to states and governments that are antithetical to the terror group’s cause and beliefs.

While larger geopolitical and geoeconomic events still dominate the global security discourse, foreign governments may feel overstretched with resources for counter-terrorism efforts, widening vulnerabilities for AQ and its followers to exploit.
In light of these ongoing developments, organisations should assess how this threat escalation may impact operations. Conduct a broad-spectrum security risk assessment to identify any exposures and implement commensurate mitigation practices. Review or renew terrorism insurance coverage.

See the country profile for detailed information on the health situation in Afghanistan.